Heat pump water heater
or like-for-like replacement?
The right answer is climate-dependent, fuel-dependent, and depends on how long you're staying in the home. This decision calculator stacks the HEEHRA point-of-sale rebate (up to $1,750 for income-qualified households in states with active programs) and any state or utility rebate against the incremental cost, then weighs the operating-cost saving over your years-in-home horizon. The federal Section 25C credit ended December 31, 2025, so the calculator no longer applies it. Output: GO NOW, GO IF STAYING 8+ YEARS, WAIT, or STICK WITH LIKE-FOR-LIKE.
your current setup
Current water heater fuel
Household size
~60 gal/day typical
Climate zone
COP × 1.00
Electric rate ($/kWh)
install costs & incentives
HPWH installed cost ($)
Like-for-like cost ($)
Federal Section 25C credit ended 31 Dec 2025. Installs placed in service in 2026 get no federal tax credit, so none is applied here. State, utility, and IRA point-of-sale rebates below still count where active.
State / utility rebate ($)
Years you plan to stay in this home
Strong case to install heat pump now.
Payback under 5 years and lifetime savings positive. The operating savings cover the incremental cost quickly, even with no federal credit. Order the HPWH instead of a like-for-like replacement.
Annual saving
$449
operating costs
Payback
3.8 yr
on incremental cost
Lifetime saving (13 yr)
$4,135
after incremental upfront
upfront cost stack
annual operating cost
Current (Electric resistance tank)
$630
HPWH (COP 3.30)
$181
Annual gap
−$449
HPWH energy demand: gallons × 365 × 8.33 lb/gal × 70°F rise ÷ 3412 BTU/kWh ÷ COP_effective. Current fuel demand uses appropriate fuel-specific efficiency factor. Climate adjusts effective COP, cold-climate HPWHs default to electric-resistance below ~45°F. The federal Section 25C credit ended for installs placed in service after 31 Dec 2025, so no federal credit is applied. HEEHRA rebate is point-of-sale, up to $1,750 for households below 150% AMI; programmes still run in some states but several have closed or waitlisted (California fully reserved as of Feb 2026), check yours.
What flips the verdict
For the same household and the same install cost, the verdict can move from GO NOW to STICK WITH LIKE-FOR-LIKE based on four variables:
Current fuel
Electric-resistance tank → heat pump is almost always GO. Gas tank → marginal in cheap-gas states (Texas, Louisiana at $0.80/therm), GO in expensive-gas states (CA, NY, MA at $1.80+).
Climate zone
Warm climates (FL, TX, GA, CA) get the rated COP and the best economics. Cold climates (MN, ND, ME) see the unit default to resistance-mode in winter, which materially hurts annual savings.
HEEHRA eligibility
The $1,750 point-of-sale rebate (for households <150% AMI in states with an open program) often tips a 6-8 year payback into a 3-4 year payback. With the federal credit gone, this is the biggest single lever left. Worth checking.
Years in home
The maths is sensitive to your planning horizon. A 13-year typical lifetime needs at least 8-10 years of ownership to capture the value. Sell at 4 years and the incremental cost is largely sunk.
Methodology
The energy calculation uses the standard water-heating formula:
BTU/day = gallons × 8.33 lb/gal × 70°F rise
// HPWH energy demand
kWh/yr = (gallons × 365 × 8.33 × 70) ÷ 3412 ÷ COP_effective
// Decision
net_upfront = HPWH_cost − HEEHRA − state_rebate
payback_yr = (net_upfront − like_for_like_cost) ÷ annual_saving
lifetime_net = annual_saving × years_in_home − incremental_cost
70°F rise reflects typical incoming-cold-water temperature (~55°F) heated to a delivery temperature of 125°F. 3412 BTU/kWh is the standard conversion. HPWH rated COP of 3.3 reflects the ENERGY STAR Most Efficient threshold; effective COP is adjusted by climate zone (warm 1.10x, mild 1.00x, cold 0.78x, cold-climate adjustment accounts for resistance-mode hours).
Daily hot water demand by household: 2 people 30 gpd, 3 people 45 gpd, 4 people 60 gpd, 5 people 75 gpd. No federal credit is applied: the Section 25C credit ended for property placed in service after December 31, 2025 (One Big Beautiful Bill Act). HEEHRA rebate: up to $1,750 for <150% AMI households in states with active program. State rebate is user-entered.
Verdict thresholds: payback <5 yr AND lifetime saving positive → GO NOW. 5-10 yr payback AND positive lifetime → GO IF STAYING 8+. Positive lifetime but >10 yr payback → WAIT. Negative lifetime → STICK WITH LIKE-FOR-LIKE. Zero or negative incremental cost (rare, but possible with stacked rebates) → automatic GO NOW. Sources: IRS Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit guidance (25C termination after Dec 31, 2025), DOE ENERGY STAR HPWH program data, NREL water heating reference.